In November 2004, American defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton published a landmark report titled “Energy Futures in Asia; during which it was argued that China’s extensive investments in seaports across the Indian Ocean could be used to establish a network of naval bases extending from Southern China to Pakistan: a strategy later dubbed the ‘String of Pearls’.
The "String of Pearls" refers to China's network of military and trade facilities, along with maritime links, extending from mainland China to southern Port Sudan. Each "pearl" in the string represents a strategic point that strengthens China's influence and geopolitical power. By establishing a network of ports and infrastructure projects, China has significantly expanded its reach, enabling it to secure critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca and the Bab-el-Mandeb. These developments not only bolster Beijing’s economic influence but also enhance its capacity for naval deployment and force projection. This is significant because a growing naval presence allows China to exert control over vital maritime routes, secure its trade interests, and project military power across the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, China’s expanding naval reach can disrupt regional security dynamics, challenge established naval powers such as the United States, and potentially lead to heightened geopolitical tensions.
20 years later, the Maldives, a strategically positioned archipelago in the Indian Ocean, has become a focal point in the competition over control of crucial maritime chokepoints, regional influence, and access to energy resources and trade routes. After years of close collaboration with India, the nation has recently strengthened its ties with China, signing multiple agreements elevating bilateral ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership. This indicates a more formalised relationship between the two countries, involving cooperation across sectors such as trade, infrastructure, defense, and diplomacy, with the aim of strengthening mutual interests and enhancing long-term strategic alignment. This realignment has raised new alarms in both India and the United States regarding China’s growing maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific region, sparking newfound fears about the resurgence of the famous Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ strategy.
The dual purpose of many Chinese-funded ports, constructed for commercial purposes, harbors a sinister undertone, raising security concerns about their potential military applications. Facilities like Hambantota in Sri Lanka, secured by China in a $1.1bn deal in 2017, Gwadar in Balochistan province, Pakistan under which Beijing provided most of the $1.2 billion cost, and formally gained operational control in February 2013, have the potential to be repurposed for military use, providing China with strategic footholds near India’s maritime borders. This potential militarization threatens to disrupt the balance of power in the region and constrain India’s ability to operate freely within its own sphere of influence.
The Indian Ocean is considered a crucial corridor for global trade and energy supplies, hosting some of the most strategically significant sea lanes in the world. Connecting the continents of Asia, Africa, and Oceania, the Indian Ocean facilitates nearly 80% of global oil shipments primarily between the Middle East and Asia and over a third of the world’s bulk cargo, which moves between ports in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. Its waters hold critical chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, and the Bab-el-Mandeb, serving as gateways for commerce and energy flows between the East and the West. A country that dominates the Indian Ocean can control shipping routes, dictate trade flows, and influence global energy prices, thereby strengthening its economic and geopolitical leverage. This level of control directly impacts global security, economic stability, and even environmental sustainability, as disruptions in the Indian Ocean could lead to supply chain shocks, energy crises, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The Indian Ocean's importance in global security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability is underscored by its strategic location and its role in facilitating major global trade routes. Key players in this competition include regional powers such as India, China, and the Middle Eastern states, as well as global actors like the United States and European nations. The region’s significance is driven by its crucial shipping lanes for oil and goods.
Prior to the rise of European imperialism, these chokepoints were dominated by powers such as China, whose maritime influence extended along the South China Sea and through the Strait of Malacca, facilitating trade and maintaining control over vital sea routes,. The British Empire, at its peak, exercised significant influence over many of these strategic locations, particularly with the establishment of naval bases in places like Singapore and Gibraltar, which secured British control over global maritime trade. The Dutch also played a pivotal role in controlling key sea routes, particularly in Southeast Asia, through their colonial presence in the East Indies. This colonial history continues to shape the geopolitical dynamics in the region today, as old and new colonial powers aim to continue their naval presence and China seeks to assert its dominance in the Indian Ocean. The historical perceptions of these chokepoints, shaped by colonial rivalries and trade routes, influence contemporary security concerns as major powers like China, India, and the United States compete for naval dominance and economic influence in the region. The legacy of colonial-era control over these maritime passages has reinforced their strategic importance, leading to modern-day military buildups, infrastructure investments, and diplomatic tensions, particularly in areas like the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca.
India competes with China for influence in these regions, particularly as China expands its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and maritime presence through its “String of Pearls” strategy. India’s policies aim to counterbalance China’s growing dominance by deepening trade, security partnerships, and infrastructure development with Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. While these policies are situated within the wider context of India's foreign policy priorities, the influence of the Hindutva ideology adopted by the BJP, which emphasises India's historical and cultural connections in the region, must also be acknowledged. However, the policies also build on earlier frameworks like the "Look East Policy" initiated in the 1990s, reflecting a continuity in India's long-term strategic objectives. These policies aim to integrate India more deeply into the Indo-Pacific framework, promoting trade and security collaboration with key partners.
For India itself, the Indian Ocean holds even greater strategic importance. Geographically poised at the Ocean’s center, with 7,500 kilometers of coastline, the Indian Ocean has always acted as a conduit for India's wider engagement with the world. Nearly 95% of India’s trade by volume and 68% by value passes through its waters, making it the lifeblood of the country’s economy. This trade predominantly flows from key global markets, including the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and East Africa, with much of it dating back to the rise of India’s maritime trade in the post-colonial era. Moreover, India heavily relies on the Indian Ocean for its energy security, with about 80% of its crude oil imports, primarily from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, traversing these waters. This dependency on the Indian Ocean for both trade and energy has grown significantly since the 1990s as India’s economic liberalisation has expanded its global trade networks. The country's growing energy needs, projected to be between 2040-2857 TWh by 2030, make securing sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) in the Indian Ocean critical.
The Indian Ocean is not only vital for trade and energy but also crucial for India's climate stability and disaster management, given its coastline's vulnerability to rising sea levels and extreme weather. Institutions like the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) support ocean monitoring and early warning systems, helping to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters such as tsunamis and cyclones. INCOIS works in collaboration with international organisations. Meanwhile, India’s leadership in initiatives like the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), which is financially supported by countries such as Japan and the United States, and multilateral institutions like the UN and World Bank, demonstrates its commitment to building regional disaster resilience. CDRI focuses on promoting resilient infrastructure across developing nations, providing both technical support and funding to enhance regional disaster preparedness. By providing humanitarian assistance and investing in disaster preparedness, India strengthens its influence and reputation in the region, an exemplar of "soft power," where a country gains geopolitical goodwill through diplomacy, aid, and cooperation rather than military force and aggression. This is evident in India’s rapid disaster response, such as aiding Mozambique after Cyclone Idai in 2019, which further bolsters its standing as a reliable regional leader.
Geopolitically, the Indian Ocean is central to India’s ambitions of becoming a dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. India's "Act East" and "Neighborhood First" policies, initiated during the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, advocate for the enhancement of maritime connectivity to strengthen economic, cultural, and strategic ties with neighbouring and regional countries. These policies are particularly significant as they serve as India’s counterweight to China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the String of Pearls strategy. By fostering closer ties with key partners such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, India aims to secure vital trade routes, enhance energy security, and reinforce its naval presence. Strengthening these regional relationships not only bolsters India’s economic and security interests but also positions it as a key player in shaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power, reducing the dependency of smaller nations on Beijing.
This is something Prime Minister Narendra Modi is well aware of, asserting that ‘The Indian Ocean Region is at the top of our (India’s) policy priorities’, holding ‘the key to India's future’, a future which China's ‘String of Pearls’ poses a threat to disrupt.
Moreover, the economic leverage China exerts over debt-laden nations throughout this region exacerbates this challenge. By investing heavily in strategic infrastructure projects, such as ports, highways, and railways, China has established a significant foothold in several countries, including Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Pakistan. These investments, often framed as part of China’s infamous global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are often financed through loans. However, many recipient nations struggle to repay them, leading to debt dependency. The Maldives, for instance, has been drawn into a cycle of debt dependency with China, risking its sovereignty as it struggles to repay loans tied to Chinese infrastructure projects. Similarly, Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which was leased to China for 99 years due to its inability to meet debt obligations, serves as prime examples of how China uses economic leverage to secure strategic assets. As these countries fall further into China’s economic orbit, they may begin to shift their political and strategic alignment towards Beijing, potentially at the expense of long-standing regional powers like India. The result is a gradual erosion of India’s traditional influence in its maritime backyard, with nations that once viewed India as a natural partner now leaning towards China for economic support. This shift not only diminishes India’s ability to exert diplomatic influence but also risks leaving it diplomatically isolated in a region that has long been a cornerstone of its strategic interests.
China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy represents a potential challenge to India’s national security and aspirations for regional leadership. While India and China are both members of BRICS, a bloc designed to foster collaboration among emerging economies, their dynamics within the group are complex. BRICS provides a platform for India and China to work together on shared goals, such as reforming global governance systems and promoting a multipolar world order. However, beneath this cooperation lies strategic competition, particularly in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. From India’s perspective, China’s BRI, which includes the aforementioned Hambantota Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, represents an encirclement strategy aimed at isolating and undermining India’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood. These fears are arguably rooted in its historical vulnerability to external control over maritime trade, which has its origins in the colonial-era exploitation of its ports and resources by European powers. This colonial legacy has left a lingering distrust of foreign domination in strategic spaces like the Indian Ocean.
Others argue that India’s perception of China’s ‘String of Pearls strategy’ exaggerates their intent. Beijing frames its BRI as a developmental initiative, aiming to improve connectivity and economic growth across Asia and Africa. Proponents of BRICS collaboration argue that India and China could leverage their shared membership to reduce tensions, particularly by aligning their interests in infrastructure development and trade.
Despite these arguments, India’s apprehensions are informed by more than historical legacies. The modern geopolitical reality of unresolved border disputes, growing Chinese influence in South Asia, and India’s dependence on Indian Ocean sea lanes for trade and energy security further explain its unease. China’s growing footprint in the Indian Ocean undermines India’s influence and presents a geopolitical threat to its strategic interests. In response, India must adopt a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses both the immediate and long-term implications of China’s "String of Pearls" strategy. The following recommendations offer actionable strategies to enhance India’s security, strengthen regional stability, and preserve its competitive advantage in the Indian Ocean, ensuring that it can effectively counterbalance China’s expanding influence while reinforcing its position as a dominant regional power.
Strengthening alliances
India’s involvement in the Quad is a critical component of its strategy to counterbalance China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean. As a multilateral platform, the Quad brings together four democratic nations, India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, that share similar values of promoting a rules-based international order. The forum provides a strong foundation for cooperation across various sectors, including maritime security, infrastructure development, technology, and counterterrorism. Through its partnership in the Quad, India can also harness the collective economic and technological expertise of these nations, further bolstering its own development in critical sectors such as cybersecurity, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy. In the context of the String of Pearls, where China is building a network of port and infrastructure projects across the Indian Ocean, the Quad can help provide alternative, transparent development initiatives that align with the region’s long-term stability and sustainable growth. For instance, India and its Quad partners can collaborate on infrastructure projects that offer a credible alternative to China's BRI, ensuring that countries in the region have access to diversified sources of investment that are not tied to China’s geopolitical objective
Diplomacy and Dialogue
India must deepen its diplomatic engagement with countries involved in China’s String of Pearls strategy, initiating open and constructive dialogues to address their concerns and foster trust. By focusing on collaborative initiatives, India can help these nations navigate the complexities of their relationships with China while promoting regional stability. Strengthening existing alliances, particularly with countries in Southeast Asia, the Gulf, and Africa, will allow India to form a united front against potential Chinese encroachments. In parallel, India should work to forge new partnerships based on shared values of sovereignty, independence, and mutual respect. Regional forums like IORA, BIMSTEC, and ASEAN provide platforms for India to advocate for a rules-based international order, engage in capacity-building efforts, and promote multilateral solutions to shared security challenges. Through sustained diplomatic engagement and dialogue, India can reinforce its role as a leading regional power and encourage collective action to safeguard the Indian Ocean’s strategic interests.
Economic Engagement
To effectively counterbalance China’s growing economic footprint in the Indian Ocean, India must enhance its economic engagement by offering sustainable, transparent, and mutually beneficial alternatives to Chinese investments. This includes increased investment in critical infrastructure projects such as ports, renewable energy, and digital connectivity, areas where India has significant expertise and resources to contribute. By aligning these projects with the development goals of Indian Ocean nations, India can create a network of economic partnerships that emphasise long-term growth, resilience, and independence from China’s debt-trap diplomacy. Initiatives like the India-Africa Growth Corridor and the International Solar Alliance serve as models for expanding India’s economic footprint, and India should build upon these to offer alternative sources of development financing. In addition, India can leverage multilateral platforms such as the Quad and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to promote joint financing initiatives that ensure infrastructure projects are sustainable and free from the political influence often associated with Chinese investments. By offering these alternatives, India can reduce the region’s dependency on China and strengthen its position as a reliable economic partner in the Indian Ocean.
Conclusion
The balance of power in the Indian Ocean will ultimately depend on India’s ability to adapt, collaborate, and lead in the face of evolving geopolitical challenges. India’s response to China’s String of Pearls strategy must be multifaceted, combining diplomatic engagement, economic alternatives, and strengthened regional alliances to safeguard its interests in the Indian Ocean. By deepening diplomatic ties and fostering regional cooperation, India can build a united front against potential threats while asserting its leadership in shaping a rules-based international order. Simultaneously, by offering sustainable economic partnerships and alternatives to China’s debt-driven model, India can help ensure that Indian Ocean nations have access to transparent, long-term development opportunities. Through these strategies, India can maintain its influence in the region, secure its maritime interests, and contribute to a stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
Card Image: A Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite recorded this view of the Indian subcontinent on the night of 12 November 2012, during the festival of Diwali. Image on the Public Domain.
Banner Image: Image by William07 via Unsplash